CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

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Congress

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2013/12/15 - INITIAL PROJECTION
We initiate coverage of the 2014 mid-term elections by projecting that Republicans will recapture the Senate in 2014 after an 8-year sabbatical. Pick ups in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana are all but guaranteed, while Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana offer probable gains. Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and especially North Carolina offer fertile ground, and we expect these states to slowly drift to the GOP side of the ledger as the election approaches, and the choices faced by voters come into clearer focus.

New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia and perhaps Oregon also present opportunities, though the RNC has not usually shown itself to be as adept as its competition at the DNC has been at picking the high hanging fruit. Perhaps the RNC has finally learned its lesson, and will choose to wholeheartedly support its candidates in these races.

Georgia and Kentucky offer some opportunity for gains to Democrats, but right now these would seem to represent more in the way of wishful thinking rather than legitimate prospects for victory.

As of December 15, 2013
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